AI Growth Experiment Portfolio Forecast OS

# AI Growth Experiment Portfolio Forecast OS - AI Growth Portfolio Team

## Baseline
- Quarter: 2026 Q2
- Monthly qualified trials: 2,400
- Trial-to-paid conversion: 12.5%
- Current ARPA: $210
- Gross margin: 74.0%
- Monthly expansion rate: 8.2%
- Monthly logo churn: 4.9%
- Paid acquisition budget: $145,000 per month
- Blended CAC: $3,900 -> $2,900 (+25.6% improvement target)
- Payback: 7.8 -> 5.4 months (2.4 months recovery target)
- Experiment win-rate: 29.0% -> 43.0% (14.0 points target)
- Experiment capacity per sprint: 5 lanes
- Owner capacity points: 54.0 available / 29.0 planned (1.86x coverage)
- Primary constraint: High CAC and slow payback
- Monetization pressure score: 96.6 / 100 (Critical)
- Recommended cadence: Run two portfolio command reviews per week and clear blocked lanes within 48 hours.

## Revenue and economics context
- Estimated paid accounts per month: 300.0
- Monthly new MRR baseline: $63,000
- Quarterly new MRR baseline: $189,000
- Monthly gross-profit baseline: $46,620
- Monthly churn-risk MRR baseline: $3,087
- Projected incremental MRR run-rate at full sprint cut: $86,992
- Projected quarterly MRR run-rate with sprint cut: $449,976
- Projected monthly gross-profit run-rate with sprint cut: $110,994

## Owner model
- Growth owner: Growth Lead
- Product owner: Product Activation Lead
- RevOps owner: RevOps Director
- Lifecycle owner: Lifecycle Marketing Lead

## Prioritized experiment portfolio (6 lanes)
| # | Lane | Owner | Expected MRR impact | Effort | Confidence | Priority score | Sprint | Supporting route |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pipeline leakage recovery | RevOps Director | $19,040 | 4 | 74.7% | 3555.7 | Sprint 1 | AI Pipeline Leakage Audit Generator (/ai-pipeline-leakage-audit-generator) |
| 2 | Experiment governance and stop-loss | Growth Lead | $12,920 | 3 | 77.7% | 3346.3 | Sprint 3 | AI A/B Test Manager Generator (/ai-ab-test-manager-generator) |
| 3 | Activation friction reduction | Product Activation Lead | $17,258 | 5 | 69.7% | 2405.8 | Sprint 1 | AI Trial-to-Paid Conversion Rescue Generator (/ai-trial-to-paid-conversion-rescue-generator) |
| 4 | Pricing and payback experiment | Growth Lead | $21,114 | 6 | 65.7% | 2312.0 | Sprint 1-2 | AI Pricing and Packaging Experiment Planner (/ai-pricing-packaging-experiment-planner) |
| 5 | Expansion packaging | RevOps Director | $16,660 | 5 | 66.7% | 2222.4 | Sprint 2 | AI Expansion Revenue Forecast OS (/ai-expansion-revenue-playbook-generator) |
| 6 | Churn and win-back defense | Lifecycle Marketing Lead | $18,020 | 6 | 63.7% | 1913.1 | Sprint 2-3 | AI Win-Back Reactivation Playbook Generator (/ai-winback-reactivation-playbook-generator) |

## Next sprint capacity cut (5 lanes)
1. Pipeline leakage recovery - Owner: RevOps Director; Impact: $19,040; Priority: 3555.7
2. Experiment governance and stop-loss - Owner: Growth Lead; Impact: $12,920; Priority: 3346.3
3. Activation friction reduction - Owner: Product Activation Lead; Impact: $17,258; Priority: 2405.8
4. Pricing and payback experiment - Owner: Growth Lead; Impact: $21,114; Priority: 2312.0
5. Expansion packaging - Owner: RevOps Director; Impact: $16,660; Priority: 2222.4

## 90-day checkpoint scorecard
| Checkpoint | Pressure target | Win-rate target | CAC target | Payback target | Active lanes | Incremental MRR run-rate | Quarterly MRR run-rate | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 93.1 | 31.2% | $3,740 | 7.4 months | 2 | $13,919 | $230,757 | Growth Lead |
| Week 2 | 89.6 | 33.5% | $3,580 | 7.0 months | 2 | $27,837 | $272,511 | Growth Lead |
| Week 4 | 85.6 | 36.0% | $3,400 | 6.6 months | 3 | $43,496 | $319,488 | RevOps Director |
| Week 6 | 81.6 | 38.5% | $3,220 | 6.2 months | 4 | $59,155 | $366,465 | RevOps Director |
| Week 8 | 78.1 | 40.8% | $3,060 | 5.8 months | 4 | $73,073 | $408,219 | Lifecycle Marketing Lead |
| Week 12 | 74.6 | 43.0% | $2,900 | 5.4 months | 5 | $86,992 | $449,976 | Lifecycle Marketing Lead |

## Weekly operating ritual
1. Re-rank active lanes by priority score and update owner confidence from observed results.
2. Pause any lane below threshold score or outside CAC/payback guardrails.
3. Reallocate capacity points to lanes with the highest incremental gross-profit run-rate.
4. Publish one weekly decision memo with stop/continue/scale decisions and checkpoint status.