AI Win-Back Reactivation Forecast OS

# AI Win-Back Reactivation Forecast OS - Revenue Lifecycle Team

## Baseline
- Monthly churned accounts: 160
- Recoverable segment share: 64.0%
- Current reactivation rate: 8.0%
- Target reactivation rate: 16.0%
- Reactivation gap: 8.0 points
- Current retained-90-day quality: 58.0%
- Target retained-90-day quality: 75.0%
- Retained-quality gap: 17.0 points
- Current median reactivation cycle: 32.0 days
- Target median reactivation cycle: 18.0 days
- Cycle-time recovery target: 14.0 days (43.8%)
- Primary churn cause: Low product adoption
- Win-back pressure score: 90.4 / 100 (Critical)
- Recommended cadence: Run two weekly win-back command reviews with 48-hour blocker closure.

## Reactivation economics
- Recoverable account pool / month: 102
- Recovered accounts / month: 8.2 -> 16.3
- Retained recovered accounts / month: 4.8 -> 12.2 (+7.4)
- Incremental qualified recovered MRR / month: $6,068
- Incremental qualified recovered MRR / year: $72,816
- Speed-adjusted incremental recovered MRR / month: $12,983
- Speed-adjusted incremental recovered MRR / year: $155,796
- Annualized gross-profit uplift: $57,525

## Capacity diagnostics
- Required reactivation touches / week: 4.3
- Available reactivation touches / week: 84.0
- Reactivation coverage ratio: 19.53
- Reactivation touch delta / week: +79.7

## Owner model
- Lifecycle owner: Lifecycle Growth Lead
- Customer success owner: Customer Success Manager
- RevOps owner: RevOps Director

## 90-day execution lines
| # | Stage | Objective | Owner | Due window | Success metric | Supporting route |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Recoverability segmentation command | Classify churned accounts by recoverability, value tier, and churn cause before outreach. | RevOps Director | Week 1 | Recoverable segment coverage exceeds 95% of targeted churn cohorts | AI Churn Intervention Forecast OS (/ai-churn-intervention-playbook-generator) |
| 2 | Proof-first offer sequencing | Map each segment to one value-proof offer with margin-safe incentives and owner-assigned next actions. | Lifecycle Growth Lead | Week 1-2 | Reactivation trend moves toward 16.0% | AI Customer Proof Forecast OS (/ai-customer-proof-pack-generator) |
| 3 | Reactivation-capacity balancing | Align required touches with pod throughput, pause low-yield segments when coverage is below target, and clear owner blockers quickly. | RevOps Director | Week 2-3 | Coverage ratio stays >= 1.00 (current 19.53) | AI Revenue Lifecycle Hub (/ai-revenue-lifecycle-hub) |
| 4 | Retention-quality reactivation path | Rebuild first-30-day activation milestones so reactivated accounts retain product value and avoid repeat churn. | Customer Success Manager | Week 3-4 | Retained-90-day reactivation quality trends toward 75.0% | AI Trial Conversion Forecast OS (/ai-trial-to-paid-conversion-rescue-generator) |
| 5 | Expansion handoff activation | Route retained reactivated accounts into expansion lanes with explicit handoff SLA and owner accountability. | Lifecycle Growth Lead | Week 4-5 | Retained reactivated accounts entering expansion lane increase for two cycles | AI Expansion Revenue Forecast OS (/ai-expansion-revenue-playbook-generator) |
| 6 | Executive recovered-MRR checkpoint loop | Run a monthly forecast scorecard covering reactivation quality, cycle-time recovery, and annualized gross-profit uplift. | RevOps Director | Week 6-8 | Incremental qualified recovered MRR remains positive for two checkpoint cycles | AI Growth and Monetization Hub (/ai-growth-monetization-hub) |

## 90-day checkpoint scorecard
| Checkpoint | Recoverable target | Reactivation target (%) | Retained-90d target (%) | Retained recovered target | Cycle-time target (days) | Coverage target | Qualified recovered MRR run-rate | Speed-adjusted MRR run-rate | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 93.4 | 9.3 | 60.7 | 6.0 | 29.8 | 14.92 | $971 | $2,077 | Lifecycle Growth Lead |
| Week 2 | 95.1 | 10.6 | 63.4 | 7.2 | 27.5 | 12.27 | $1,942 | $4,155 | Lifecycle Growth Lead |
| Week 4 | 96.9 | 12.0 | 66.5 | 8.5 | 25.0 | 9.29 | $3,034 | $6,492 | Customer Success Manager |
| Week 6 | 98.7 | 13.4 | 69.6 | 9.8 | 22.5 | 6.30 | $4,126 | $8,828 | Customer Success Manager |
| Week 8 | 100.4 | 14.7 | 72.3 | 11.0 | 20.2 | 3.65 | $5,097 | $10,906 | RevOps Director |
| Week 12 | 102.0 | 16.0 | 75.0 | 12.2 | 18.0 | 1.00 | $6,068 | $12,983 | RevOps Director |

## Weekly operating ritual
1. Refresh recoverability segments and pause low-fit outreach lanes.
2. Rebalance pod throughput when coverage ratio drops below 1.00.
3. Escalate retained-quality checkpoints that miss targets for two consecutive weeks.
4. Publish recovered-MRR forecast deltas and unresolved owner blockers.